What are the best U.S. investments in an environment of rising long-term interest rates?

Evidence(5)

1. 

   A rising-yield window favored banks

   [12][13][16]

   30 Dec 2016

   By the end of the July 8–December 30 window, the ten-year Treasury yield had risen 108 basis points and bank ETF KBE had returned 44.57%, with distributions reinvested.

   1

   This selected window shows that banks can benefit when rising yields accompany reflation; it does not establish a general rule.

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2. 

   A different rising-yield window hurt banks

   [14][15][10]

   24 Oct 2022

   Across January 3–October 24, the ten-year Treasury yield rose 262 basis points, while KBE returned −14.71% and energy ETF XLE returned +57.46%, with distributions reinvested.

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3. 

   Chubb reports underwriting profit alongside investment income

   [9]

   21 Jul 2026

   Chubb reported a second-quarter P&C combined ratio of 83.8% and pretax investment income of $1.76 billion, up 12.3% year over year.

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4. 

   Progressive reports a weaker underwriting margin

   [26]

   18 Sept 2026

   Progressive reported an August combined ratio of 89.3%, up 6.2 points from August 2025.

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5. 

   Treasury yields show a broad rise, not just a long-end move

   [19][20][21][22]

   25 Sept 2026

   The ten-year nominal Treasury yield stood at 5.17%. Since January 2 it had risen 98 basis points, compared with an 89-basis-point rise in the ten-year real yield and a 134-basis-point rise in the two-year nominal yield.

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