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By Intermission· 1,966 words

ResearchEvidenceQuestion

Which specific AI packaging or substrate process will remain supply-constrained through 2028?

Evidence(3)

  1. Nittobo announces glass-cloth expansion

    [15]

    Nittobo announced approximately ¥15 billion of glass-cloth investment. The planned addition makes qualified low-thermal-expansion cloth a credible upstream consideration, but the announcement does not quantify qualified output or establish a shortage through 2028.

    1

    The fiscal-2026 Q4 production start is a plan, not a completed event.

  2. Ibiden announces major substrate investment

    [5][6]

    Ibiden announced an approximately ¥500 billion investment plan for high-performance IC package substrates over FY2026–FY2028. A separate project notice describes approximately ¥220 billion of planned investment. These commitments are a substantial supply response to substrate demand, though spending does not itself establish customer-qualified SAP output.

  3. TSMC says packaging capacity limits customer growth

    [8]

    On its second-quarter earnings call, TSMC chief executive C.C. Wei said packaging capacity was so tight that it limited customers’ growth. This establishes a contemporaneous commercial constraint, but does not identify the constrained subprocess or prove scarcity in 2028.

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