Why are interest rates high and what would make them fall?

Evidence(7)

1. 

   Fed sets a 1.50%–1.75% target range

   [9]

   11 Dec 2019

   The late-2019 setting provides a benchmark for judging how high current policy rates are.

   1

   This is a policy decision, not an estimate of where rates must eventually return.

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2. 

   Fed holds the target at 5.25%–5.50%

   [10]

   20 Sept 2023

   This cited tightening-era setting shows that the later 2026 target is below the recent peak.

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3. 

   Fed cuts rates as the balance of risks shifts

   [4]

   18 Sept 2024

   Powell explained the half-point cut in terms of diminished inflation risks and increased employment risks.

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4. 

   Fed raises its target to 3.75%–4.00%

   [3]

   16 Sept 2026

   The quarter-point increase reflects the Fed’s concern about elevated inflation and its 2% goal.

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5. 

   Freddie Mac reports a 7.28% mortgage survey rate

   [2]

   1 Oct 2026

   The 30-year mortgage survey rate illustrates the cost facing new borrowers.

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6. 

   Jefferson says broad inflation spillovers are not yet apparent

   [17]

   1 Oct 2026

   The Fed vice chair distinguished the price shock from evidence of broader, persistent spillovers.

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7. 

   September jobs report shows weak hiring

   [19]

   2 Oct 2026

   Payrolls rose by 29,000, compared with a preceding-12-month average of 45,000 per month.

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