Which semiconductor scarcity rents are structural rather than cyclical?

Evidence(7)

1. 

   Mapping the semiconductor value chain (EN)

   [1]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: The OECD maps a specialized, interdependent chain spanning design, wafer fabrication, and assembly, testing, and packaging. Five foundries represent 80% of mapped foundry revenue. Three EDA/IP firms exceed 60% of EDA and 70% of IP markets. Trade dependencies rose 53%, reaching 49 among OECD members in 2020–22.

   1

   Bearing: Specialization, capital intensity, R&D, licensing, and limited alternatives make concentrated inputs and process segments strong structural candidates for scarcity rents. The OECD’s trade evidence supports dependency risk, not pricing power. Its product aggregation and data gaps, especially for design and back-end production, prevent a complete rent estimate.

   See how this bears on the question
2. 

   PowerPoint Presentation

   [2]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: Micron said DRAM and NAND demand significantly exceeded supply, with tightness extending beyond 2027. Fiscal Q3 revenue reached $41.5 billion and non-GAAP gross margin 84.9%. Greenfield fabs face construction, labor, permitting, energy, and technology constraints. Sixteen strategic agreements cover roughly 20% of DRAM and one-third of NAND volume.

   See how this bears on the question
3. 

   Q2 2026 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call (Chinese, English) on July 16, 2026 / 6:00AM

   [3]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: TSMC reported Q2 2026 revenue of $40.2 billion; advanced technologies supplied 77% of wafer revenue and HPC 66% of sales. It raised 2026 capital spending to $60–64 billion. Leading-edge technology, capacity, and ramping require five to seven years, while advanced-packaging capacity remains tight.

   See how this bears on the question
4. 

   SK hynix Announces 2Q26 Financial Results – SK hynix Newsroom

   [4]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: SK hynix reported 2Q26 revenue of 79.3187 trillion won and operating profit of 60.5426 trillion won, a 76% margin. DRAM and NAND prices increased quarter over quarter. AI-server HBM, DRAM, and eSSD led sales, while demand exceeded supply and long-term agreements covered about 10 customers.

   See how this bears on the question
5. 

   www.sec.gov

   [5]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: ASML reported 2025 net sales of €32.7 billion, €4.7 billion in R&D, and a €38.8 billion backlog. It is the only EUV-system manufacturer and relies on 5,100 suppliers. AI-driven demand raised EUV needs in advanced logic and DRAM, while supply-demand imbalances supported high equipment pricing.

   See how this bears on the question
6. 

   www.semiconductors.org

   [6]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: Global semiconductor sales reached $795.6 billion in 2025, with 2026 projected at $1.5 trillion. Logic and memory sales grew 38.8% and 39.0%, while foundational-chip revenue fell 5.2%. AI racks contain over 4,500 packaged chips and 95% of rack value, but foundational-chip overcapacity in China depresses prices.

   See how this bears on the question
7. 

   www.semiconductors.org

   [7]

   Date unavailable

   Summary: Global semiconductor sales reached $630.5 billion in 2024, while 2025 and 2026 forecasts were $697.2 billion and $738.6 billion. U.S. firms held 50.4% share. Their 2024 capital expenditures reached $49.5 billion and R&D $70.0 billion, with investment remaining high across sales cycles.

   See how this bears on the question